Research Tool Only: This is an information dashboard comparing weather and prediction data. We do not support trading, wallet connections, or financial transactions. This is not investment advice.
Objective Weather Analysis

Weather Forecasts Meet Market Odds.

See how active weather prediction markets compare with official forecasts, live observations, and the rules that decide the result.

Explore Today's Markets How It Works
No hype. No hidden record. Every published signal is tracked until the market resolves.
Central Park High (Today) Possible Difference
Polymarket Favorite
86°F (24¢)
Forecast Model
86°F (34%)
"The official forecast and recent station observations point closer to 86°F than that price suggests. Confidence is medium."

Today's Weather Market Signals

Markets move quickly. Weather does too. We put them side by side.

View All Active Markets
New York High Uncertainty

Will temperature hit 85F boundary?

Polymarket Price
85°F or higher (40%)
NWS Forecast High
81.00°F

High atmospheric instability or thunderstorm risks create wider models disagreement, reducing prediction confidence.

View Market Breakdown
New York High Uncertainty

Will temperature hit 85F (stale obs)?

Polymarket Price
85°F (40%)
NWS Forecast High
81.00°F

High atmospheric instability or thunderstorm risks create wider models disagreement, reducing prediction confidence.

View Market Breakdown
New York Insufficient Data

Will temperature hit 85F (stale price)?

Polymarket Price
85°F (40%)
NWS Forecast High
81.00°F

Market price and weather forecast expectations are aligned.

View Market Breakdown
Critical Resolution Rules

The Forecast Is Only Part of the Story

A weather app may show one temperature. A prediction market may resolve using a specific weather station, an official observation source, and a precise time window. Those details decide the outcome.

We compare local forecasts against the precise coordinates of the settlement weather stations so you see what the market actually settles on.

Read the Rules Guide
Station Mismatch Example
Your general Weather App says: 87°F
Market resolves using: Central Park (KNYC)
Official recorded high at KNYC: 85°F
Result: The station matters. General app coordinates differed by 2 degrees from the official settlement coordinates.

How WeatherMarketWatch Works

1. We track the market

We collect active weather-market prices and the official settlement rules from Polymarket APIs.

2. We compare the weather data

We pull detailed hourly forecast coordinates and real observations directly from the National Weather Service.

3. You see the full picture

See what the market expects, what the NWS forecast suggests, and why the final result may be uncertain.

Signal Performance

Every published signal is saved before the market resolves. We match forecast estimates, market prices, and final outcomes without modifications. No retroactive editing, no hidden losses.

Resolved Markets
0
Calibration Score
N/A
View Signal Performance
Performance Statement
Performance tracking begins as markets resolve.

Frequently Asked Questions

A prediction market allows participants to buy and sell outcome shares of future events. In a weather market, traders trade shares in outcomes like "Will the high temperature in NYC be 86°F or higher today?". Each contract pays out $1.00 if correct and $0.00 if incorrect.

The price of a contract (e.g. 24¢) represents what traders are currently willing to pay. In binary outcomes, it represents the market's implied probability (e.g. 24% chance of happening).

Standard weather apps interpolate measurements for your phone's GPS position, whereas prediction markets settle using specific, official sensors (like the Central Park station) which may record different measurements.

No. We are strictly a research and information platform. We do not offer wallet integrations, support order placement, or handle financial transactions. All data is for educational research purposes.