Research Tool Only: This is an information dashboard comparing weather and prediction data. We do not support trading, wallet connections, or financial transactions. This is not investment advice.

Signal Performance

Every published signal is saved before the market resolves. See how forecast estimates, market prices, and final outcomes compared.

Early Sample Size

We have tracked fewer than 100 resolved markets (current count: 0). All performance metrics, calibration data, and accuracy scores represent a small preliminary dataset and should not be used to infer long-term predictability.

Resolved Markets
0
Historical markets verified
Top-Pick Accuracy
0%
Highest probability outcome hits
Brier Score (Calibration)
0.0000
Lower score indicates closer calibration
Mean Forecast vs Market
0%
Average probability difference

What do these metrics mean?

Top-pick accuracy:

How often our model's most highly favored outcome ended up matching the final official result recorded at the weather station.

Brier Calibration Score:

A measure of forecast accuracy. When we assign outcomes a 60% probability, do they occur about 60% of the time over many predictions? A score closer to 0.00 is better.

Mean difference vs. market:

How much our estimated heuristic probability differed from the market price available at the time we recorded the prediction snapshot.

Simulated Paper-Trading Performance

Simulated Profile
Virtual Portfolio Balance
$10,000.00
Starting value: $10,000.00
Closed Paper Signals
0
Total positions filled
Closed Win Rate
0%
0 Wins / 0 Losses
Max Drawdown
0.0%
Peak-to-valley balance decline
Average Win: $0.00
Average Loss: $0.00
Default Position Size: $10.00
Paper Signal Disclaimer: Paper results are simulations using recorded market prices and estimated trading costs. They do not reflect real execution, liquidity, slippage, fees, timing, or available order size. All paper signals are fixed at a constant $10 size, applying a conservative 1% exchange fee penalty and 0.5% slippage penalty. No real money was or ever will be traded.

Calibration Matrix

Calibration tracking begins as markets resolve.

Full Closed Results Ledger

No resolved markets recorded in database yet.