Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about prediction odds, NWS data, and rules.
A prediction market allows participants to buy and sell outcome shares of future events. In a weather market, traders trade shares in outcomes like "Will the high temperature in NYC be 86°F or higher today?". Each contract pays out $1.00 if correct and $0.00 if incorrect.
The price of a contract (e.g. 24¢) represents what traders are currently willing to pay. In binary outcomes, it represents the market's implied probability (e.g. 24% chance of happening).
Standard weather apps interpolate measurements for your phone's GPS position, whereas prediction markets settle using specific, official sensors (like the Central Park station) which may record different measurements.
No. We are strictly a research and information platform. We do not offer wallet integrations, support order placement, or handle financial transactions. All data is for educational research purposes.
We use a rules-based heuristic model. We center a normal probability curve around the official point forecast high temperature retrieved from the National Weather Service. We then evaluate the probability of each contract bracket by integrating the CDF under that curve, adjusting the standard deviation based on the time horizon and weather risk conditions.