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Los Angeles, CA Market Aligned Confidence: Medium

Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 24?

Forecast Target: Aug 24, 2026 | Cutoff: 07:00 CDT

View on Polymarket

Market Summary

What this market is asking:

Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 24?

Polymarket Favorite outcome:

No (99%)

Model estimated favorite:

Yes (0%)

Current Analysis: Polymarket currently prices the outcome "Yes" at 1%. Our rules-based heuristic estimates a 0% probability based on the NWS forecast of 83°F for Los Angeles. This creates a possible difference of 1% (net 1% after spread corrections). Confidence is rated Medium based on the 1-day forecast horizon.

Forecast vs. Market Probabilities

Yes Diff: -1%
Our Estimate:
0%
Market Price:
1%
No Diff: -99%
Our Estimate:
0%
Market Price:
99%
Important Notice: The current forecast estimate is higher than the market’s implied probability. That does not guarantee the market is wrong. Weather can change, the market may have information not reflected here, and settlement rules matter.

How This Market Resolves

Stated Weather Station:

Los Angeles International Airport, CA (KLAX)

Stated Measurement Type:

Daily High Temperature (rounded to whole F)

Rounding Rule:

Standard Round Nearest (e.g. 84.5°F rounds to 85°F)

Settlement Source:

NWS Station observations from local date cutoff.

Plain English settlement guide: This market resolves strictly based on the highest temperature reported at Los Angeles International Airport, CA on the target calendar date in the local timezone (America/Los_Angeles). Predictions do not use general app forecasts or temperatures recorded at nearby locations. 

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Signal Log / Immutable Audit Trail

Timestamp Outcome Label Model Version Market Price Model Prob Signal Label
Aug 23, 14:15 No v1.0-heuristic 99% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 14:15 Yes v1.0-heuristic 1% 0% Market Aligned
Aug 23, 14:00 No v1.0-heuristic 99% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 14:00 Yes v1.0-heuristic 1% 0% Market Aligned
Aug 23, 13:45 No v1.0-heuristic 99% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 13:45 Yes v1.0-heuristic 1% 0% Market Aligned

Live Observations

82°F
Clear
Wind Speed: 18.50 km/h (280)
Humidity: 54.58%
Station Code: KLAX
Observed At: 14:00:00 CDT

NWS Forecast Details

Forecast Center High
83°F
Calculated range: 81°F - 86°F
Forecast Summary:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. West southwest wind 0 to 10 mph.

Hourly Timeline (Target Date):
00:00 Mostly Clear 76°F
01:00 Mostly Clear 74°F
02:00 Mostly Clear 72°F
03:00 Mostly Clear 72°F
04:00 Mostly Clear 72°F
05:00 Mostly Clear 70°F
06:00 Mostly Clear 70°F
07:00 Partly Cloudy 70°F
08:00 Mostly Sunny 70°F
09:00 Mostly Sunny 72°F
10:00 Mostly Sunny 75°F
11:00 Mostly Sunny 77°F
12:00 Mostly Sunny 78°F
13:00 Sunny 81°F
14:00 Sunny 81°F
15:00 Sunny 81°F
16:00 Sunny 83°F
17:00 Sunny 81°F
18:00 Sunny 78°F
19:00 Mostly Sunny 76°F
20:00 Partly Cloudy 73°F
21:00 Partly Cloudy 73°F
22:00 Partly Cloudy 73°F
23:00 Partly Cloudy 76°F

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