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Chicago, IL Possible Difference Confidence: Medium

Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on August 24?

Forecast Target: Aug 24, 2026 | Cutoff: 07:00 CDT

View on Polymarket

Market Summary

What this market is asking:

Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on August 24?

Polymarket Favorite outcome:

No (68%)

Model estimated favorite:

Yes (0%)

Current Analysis: Polymarket currently prices the outcome "Yes" at 33%. Our rules-based heuristic estimates a 0% probability based on the NWS forecast of 77°F for Chicago. This creates a possible difference of 33% (net 33% after spread corrections). Confidence is rated Medium based on the 1-day forecast horizon.

Forecast vs. Market Probabilities

Yes Diff: -32%
Our Estimate:
0%
Market Price:
33%
No Diff: -67%
Our Estimate:
0%
Market Price:
68%
Important Notice: The current forecast estimate is higher than the market’s implied probability. That does not guarantee the market is wrong. Weather can change, the market may have information not reflected here, and settlement rules matter.

How This Market Resolves

Stated Weather Station:

Chicago O'Hare International Airport, IL (KORD)

Stated Measurement Type:

Daily High Temperature (rounded to whole F)

Rounding Rule:

Standard Round Nearest (e.g. 84.5°F rounds to 85°F)

Settlement Source:

NWS Station observations from local date cutoff.

Plain English settlement guide: This market resolves strictly based on the highest temperature reported at Chicago O'Hare International Airport, IL on the target calendar date in the local timezone (America/Chicago). Predictions do not use general app forecasts or temperatures recorded at nearby locations. 

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Signal Log / Immutable Audit Trail

Timestamp Outcome Label Model Version Market Price Model Prob Signal Label
Aug 23, 14:15 No v1.0-heuristic 67% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 14:15 Yes v1.0-heuristic 33% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 14:00 No v1.0-heuristic 67% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 14:00 Yes v1.0-heuristic 33% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 13:45 No v1.0-heuristic 68% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 13:45 Yes v1.0-heuristic 33% 0% Possible Difference

Live Observations

75°F
Mostly Cloudy
Wind Speed: 18.50 km/h (290)
Humidity: 38.49%
Station Code: KORD
Observed At: 14:00:00 CDT

NWS Forecast Details

Forecast Center High
77°F
Calculated range: 75°F - 80°F
Forecast Summary:

Mostly sunny. High near 77, with temperatures falling to around 75 in the afternoon. Northwest wind 0 to 5 mph.

Hourly Timeline (Target Date):
00:00 Mostly Clear 63°F
01:00 Mostly Clear 61°F
02:00 Mostly Clear 61°F
03:00 Mostly Clear 60°F
04:00 Mostly Clear 58°F
05:00 Mostly Clear 58°F
06:00 Sunny 58°F
07:00 Sunny 58°F
08:00 Sunny 62°F
09:00 Sunny 67°F
10:00 Mostly Sunny 70°F
11:00 Sunny 73°F
12:00 Mostly Sunny 74°F
13:00 Mostly Sunny 75°F
14:00 Mostly Sunny 76°F
15:00 Mostly Sunny 76°F
16:00 Mostly Sunny 76°F
17:00 Mostly Sunny 75°F
18:00 Mostly Cloudy 74°F
19:00 Partly Cloudy 72°F
20:00 Partly Cloudy 70°F
21:00 Partly Cloudy 68°F
22:00 Partly Cloudy 67°F
23:00 Mostly Clear 65°F

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