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Miami, FL High Uncertainty Confidence: Medium

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 24?

Forecast Target: Aug 24, 2026 | Cutoff: 07:00 CDT

View on Polymarket

Market Summary

What this market is asking:

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 24?

Polymarket Favorite outcome:

No (99%)

Model estimated favorite:

Yes (0%)

Current Analysis: Polymarket currently prices the outcome "Yes" at 1%. Our rules-based heuristic estimates a 0% probability based on the NWS forecast of 92°F for Miami. This creates a possible difference of 1% (net 1% after spread corrections). Confidence is rated Medium based on the 1-day forecast horizon.

Forecast vs. Market Probabilities

Yes Diff: -1%
Our Estimate:
0%
Market Price:
1%
No Diff: -99%
Our Estimate:
0%
Market Price:
99%
Important Notice: The current forecast estimate is higher than the market’s implied probability. That does not guarantee the market is wrong. Weather can change, the market may have information not reflected here, and settlement rules matter.

How This Market Resolves

Stated Weather Station:

Miami International Airport, FL (KMIA)

Stated Measurement Type:

Daily High Temperature (rounded to whole F)

Rounding Rule:

Standard Round Nearest (e.g. 84.5°F rounds to 85°F)

Settlement Source:

NWS Station observations from local date cutoff.

Plain English settlement guide: This market resolves strictly based on the highest temperature reported at Miami International Airport, FL on the target calendar date in the local timezone (America/New_York). Predictions do not use general app forecasts or temperatures recorded at nearby locations. 

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Signal Log / Immutable Audit Trail

Timestamp Outcome Label Model Version Market Price Model Prob Signal Label
Aug 23, 14:00 No v1.0-heuristic 99% 0% High Uncertainty
Aug 23, 14:00 Yes v1.0-heuristic 1% 0% High Uncertainty
Aug 23, 13:45 No v1.0-heuristic 99% 0% High Uncertainty
Aug 23, 13:45 Yes v1.0-heuristic 1% 0% High Uncertainty
Aug 23, 13:30 No v1.0-heuristic 99% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 13:30 Yes v1.0-heuristic 1% 0% Market Aligned
Aug 23, 13:15 No v1.0-heuristic 99% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 13:15 Yes v1.0-heuristic 1% 0% Market Aligned
Aug 23, 13:00 No v1.0-heuristic 99% 0% Possible Difference
Aug 23, 13:00 Yes v1.0-heuristic 1% 0% Market Aligned

Live Observations

84°F
Light Rain
Wind Speed: N/A km/h ()
Humidity: 74.47%
Station Code: KMIA
Observed At: 13:30:00 CDT

NWS Forecast Details

Forecast Center High
92°F
Calculated range: 90°F - 95°F
Forecast Summary:

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 105. East wind 0 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Hourly Timeline (Target Date):
00:00 Mostly Cloudy 81°F
01:00 Partly Cloudy 81°F
02:00 Partly Cloudy 81°F
03:00 Partly Cloudy 81°F
04:00 Partly Cloudy 80°F
05:00 Sunny 80°F
06:00 Sunny 79°F
07:00 Sunny 81°F
08:00 Sunny 83°F
09:00 Mostly Sunny 86°F
10:00 Mostly Sunny 88°F
11:00 Mostly Sunny 90°F
12:00 Mostly Sunny 90°F
13:00 Mostly Sunny 90°F
14:00 Mostly Sunny 90°F
15:00 Sunny 89°F
16:00 Sunny 90°F
17:00 Mostly Clear 88°F
18:00 Mostly Clear 87°F
19:00 Mostly Clear 86°F
20:00 Mostly Clear 83°F
21:00 Mostly Clear 82°F
22:00 Mostly Clear 82°F
23:00 Mostly Clear 82°F

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